Sweden
This will be Sweden‘s first game since February when they beat Croatia 1-3 in Zagreb and their first home game since all the way back in October when they beat Holland 3-2 at Solna.
The game against Iceland will be Sweden's second last before taking on Ukraine in their first game of the Euro 2012 finals. Before that they will host Serbia and Erik Hamren must be likely to use these two friendlies to complete testings of players and tactics.
Sweden has only played three home games since January 2011 while going on the road eleven times. They won all three home games against Moldova (2-1), Finland (5-0) and Holland as mentioned above. 10 goals scored in these three games surely looks impressive.
It will be important for Sweden to get their team setup and tactics nothing less than perfect since they have a very difficult task at the Euro 2012 where they sit in group with England, France and Ukraine.
Sweden are only given a small chance of progressing from their group and so they must use these friendlies well and show their upcoming opponents what they can do.
Iceland
The game against Sweden will be Lars Lagerback‘s fourth game in charge of Iceland. The three previous have all been lost against Japan (3-1), Montenegro (2-1) and France last Sunday 3-2 after surprisingly leading 0-2 at halftime. Lagerback has been testing a lot of players trying to find the best combination before the qualifying stage for the world cup begins.
Goalscoring has been Iceland‘s major problem in the last few years but their defencive play has been pretty strong. Ever since they scored three against Portugal, the last game before the takeover of Lagerback, they have scored in all three after that. However, they have also conceded in all four, a total of eight goals, so Lagerback must be looking for ways to tighten the defence to get the same defencive play his predocessor, Olafur Johannesson, achieved.
An interesting fact with the Icelandic team lately is that they tend to hold on well into the games but deep into the games it goes bad for them. Losing against Denmark after 0-0 at halftime, 1-0 against Norway after 0-0 at halftime, 2-1 against Montenegro after 0-0 at halftime and now losing 3-2 against France after leading 0-2 at halftime. One wonders if their form isn‘t good enough to finish 90 minutes on full throttle.
Iceland‘s away form is awful. Playing seven games on the road since January 2011 they have lost six and only managed one draw, 0-0 against Cyprus back in January last year. Their scoreline in those seven games is 7:18 which goes to show that the Icelandic defense hasn‘t been as strong recently as it was before.
Interestingly enough Iceland have scored in last four games after failing to score in the three games before that and five of seven have gone over 2.5, with last four among those. As mentioned above Iceland playes well in the first part of the games which is seen by the fact that they have just been losing ht/ft in three of seven games.
Lagerback will surely press hard to get his first win for Iceland visiting his native country but that task will not be easy.
Head to head
Only seven matches between the two. Sweden have won five times and Iceland once while there was a 1-1 draw in Sweden back in 1996.
Iceland win came in a friendly game in Iceland in 2000. Last five have been over 2.5 goals and three of last four over 3.5.
The Betting Verdict :
With so few home games at home for Sweden recently it‘s a bit hard to access the pure value of prices on offer. Sweden is around 1.3 to win which is probably right given the fact they have won their last 3 home games and Iceland have lost last 6 on the road.
However, I don‘t think many like to take such a low price in a friendly match where it‘s hard to find the lineup and anything can happen.
